Uchungechunge lokuphakelwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke lubhekene novivinyo lwalo lokucindezeleka olunzima kakhulu kusukela ngawo-1970. Kusukela ngoMashi 2026, ingxabano yase-Iran kanye nokuvalwa okulandelayo kweStrait of Hormuz kubangele ukwanda kokwehla kwamandla emali okubizwa ngokuthi “iTomatoflation”. Kuleli sonto, i-UN yabiza ngokusemthethweni le nkinga ngokuthi “ibhomu lesikhathi sokuphepha kokudla”, yaphawula ukuguquguquka okudlule kakhulu ukwethuka kokuphakelwa ngo-2022.
Le nkinga ikhombisa ukuthi ingxabano yendawo yezepolitiki “ihlukanise” kanjani izinsika ezintathu zemboni yokucubungula utamatisi: amandla, ukupakisha, kanye nokufakwa kwezolimo. Nakuba kuvame ukubhekwa njengento elula yokugcina ukudla, uhambo lukatamatisi olusuka ensimini luye ethini luyinqubo yezimboni edinga amandla amaningi, manje esesengozini enkulu ngaphansi kokuvalwa kwemikhumbi.
Inkinga yaqala ngoMashi 4, 2026, ngokuvalwa kweStrait of Hormuz. Lo mgwaqo wamanzi ongamakhilomitha angu-21 uthwala cishe u-30% we-LNG yomhlaba wonke kanye cishe no-20% wokuthunyelwa kukawoyela. Embonini yethu, lokhu akukhona nje "ukwenyuka kwamanani kaphethiloli" - kuwukuhlukaniswa okuphelele kwezinto ezisetshenziswa ngesikhathi esifanele zokuthutha izitshalo ezisindayo, ezibolayo.
I-Tomatoflation iqhutshwa yi-triad cost pressure hit processors ngasikhathi sinye:
1. Amandla:Utamatisi ukuze unamathiseleukucubungula kudinga ukushisa okukhulu ukuze kuphume umhwamuko, ikakhulukazi igesi yemvelo.
2. Ukupakisha: Ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium kanye ne-tinplate eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuphazanyiswa yizivimbelo; izindleko manje zingadlula unamathisele ongaphakathi.
3. Imikhiqizo: Abathengisi abakhulu abahlanganisa iRussia neShayina bathathe isinyathelo sokuvikela ukuphepha kokudla kwasekhaya, bamisa ukuthunyelwa kukamanyolo kwamanye amazwe, okushiya abalimi baseNtshonalanga bebhekene nezindleko zokufaka eziqopha umlando.
Njengoba imboni ingena efasiteleni elibalulekile lokutshala entwasahlobo, inkathi yezitshalo ezishibhile zikatamatisi iyashintshashintsha. Ngaphandle kokungenelela okusheshayo, amanani abathengi angakhuphuka ngo-35-40% kulo lonke isigaba ngesizini ka-2026.
Amandla
Nakuba inkinga kamanyolo isongela isivuno sesikhathi esizayo, izimakethe zamandla zilimaza izimboni namuhla. Igesi yemvelo ibalulekile ekugxilweni kukatamatisi, ihlinzeka ngokushisa ukuze kuphume umswakama omkhulu - kodwa ishintshe kusukela ekubizeni kuya ekuntulekeni ngokomzimba. Ngo-Ephreli 1, iQatarEnergy yamemezela amandla amakhulu ekuthunyelweni eYurophu ngemuva kokuhlaselwa kwezikhali zase-Iran enkampanini yezimboni yaseRas Laffan. Lokhu kushintsha kusuka "ekulibazisekeni" kuya "ekuphazamisekeni kwesikhathi eside" kuye kwalungisa kabusha isisekelo sethu sezindleko.
Abaprosesa be-EU babhekene neqiniso elibuhlungu: Ikusasa legesi le-TTF laseDutch liphethe ngaphezu kwe-€60/MWh. Okubi nakakhulu, umjikelezo omusha wokunyuka kwentengo yamandla ezimbonini ngo-Ephreli 1 kwasunduza izindleko ezihlobene namandla cishe ku-30% wezindleko zokukhiqiza eziphelele - okuphindwe kathathu isilinganiso somlando. Njengoba utamatisi uyizitshalo eziphilayo ezingenakukwazi "ukugcinwa" ukuze uthole amanani angcono, sisondela "ekuvalweni okubomvu". Ngaphandle kwezinyathelo ezisheshayo zokuzinzisa kazwelonke, izigidi zamathani emikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu zingabola emasimini ngoba amabhoyila awakwazi ukusebenza kahle ngokwezomnotho.
Ukupakisha
Ukungazinzi kuye kwashintsha kalula kusuka kuma-boiler kuya emigqeni yokuhlanganisa, kanye nokuntuleka okukhulu kokubili ekupakisheni okuqinile nokuguquguqukayo. "Intela yensimbi" kumathini katamatisi ajwayelekile isibe umthwalo wesakhiwo. Ukuhlaselwa kwezibhamu okuqinisekisiwe ezikhungweni zase-Alba (Bahrain) nase-EGA (UAE) ngoMashi 31 kwaguqula izimakethe kusukela ekubambezelekeni kwempahla kwaba ukuntuleka okubonakalayo. I-aluminium ye-LME ikhuphuke yaya ku-$3,500/t, kanti abahlaziyi abaphambili manje sebebikezela u-$4,000/t ekupheleni kwekota. Ngethini elijwayelekile elingu-400g, izindleko zensimbi manje seziseduze kakhulu nokudlula inani lezithelo ezingaphakathi.
Okwamanje, ukupakisha okuguquguqukayo — okubalulekile kuma-aseptic pouch, izikhwama zokuthengisa, kanye nama-liners — kubhekene “nokushaqeka kwe-polyethylene” kwayo. Ngokusho kwe-Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE), amanani e-HDPE akhuphuke ngo-12% ku-Q1 2026, i-LDPE ngo-16%, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokuzuza okwengeziwe kule nyanga njengoba abakhiqizi basekhaya bedlula izindleko zamandla eziphezulu. Njengoba i-OPIS iphawula, inkinga yase-Iran iphazamise uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-resin emhlabeni wonke, okuphoqe iYurophu ne-Asia ukuba bancintisane ngamanani aseNyakatho Melika. Njengoba i-naphtha ikhuphuke ngo-40% kanye nezindleko zezinsiza ziphindeka kabili, abaqhubi baseYurophu kumele baqhube izimboni kanzima ukuze balungise umkhiqizo olahlekile, okudala ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwentengo kanye nokuqina kokunikezwa.
Ukuthutha
Ngisho nangemva kokucutshungulwa nokukhishelwa emathinini, ukulethwa kwezimpahla eziqediwe kuphazanyiswa amaqiniso amasha endawo. Ukuwohloka kokuphepha oLwandle Olubomvu kuphoqe izinkampani ezinkulu ezithwala impahla okuhlanganisa iMaersk kanye ne-CMA CGM ukuthi zamukele umzila weCape of Good Hope njengendinganiso yangempela yokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eMedithera nase-Asia. Lokhu kuphambuka kwenezela izinsuku eziyi-14 ngohambo ngalunye, ukushaqeka okuhlelekile okuphazamisa ukulethwa kwezimpahla eziqediwe kanye nezingxenye zemishini ekhethekile.
Izindleko zokuguqula zidluliselwa ngqo kubacubunguli. Ngemva kokuba i-Brent crude ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-$108/bbl, abathwali babuyekeze izakhiwo zentela ngoMashi 27; izindleko ezengeziwe zikaphethiloli kanye nezingozi zempi manje sezimi cishe ku-$265 nge-TEU ngayinye. Izindleko ezintsha zokukhishwa komoya (EMS) ngo-Ephreli 1 zengeze ubunzima, kuyilapho amanani kadizili aqopha umlando enza ukuthuthwa "kwamamayela okugcina" ngaphakathi ezweni e-Italy naseFrance kufane namamayela okuqala ayinkulungwane okuthunyelwa olwandle. I-Tomatoflation manje iqhutshwa yimakethe yezokuthutha engasaqapheli amanani "avamile".
Ukuvikelwa kweSino-Russian
Ekugcineni, imboni ibhekene nosongo olukhona ezingeni lomhlabathi. IRussia neShayina basebenzise ngempumelelo amasheya kamanyolo womhlaba wonke ukuvikela ukuphepha kokudla kwasekhaya. NgoMashi 24, uMnyango Wezolimo waseRussia wamisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-ammonium nitrate, wasusa cishe u-40% we-nitrogen eyinhloko emhlabeni njengoba abalimi beqala ukukhulelwa entwasahlobo. Okwamanje, iShayina, ekhutshazwe “yimpophoma yesibabule” - ukuntuleka kokungeniswa kwesibabule okuvela eGulf phakathi nokuvinjelwa - kuvimbele ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-NPK kanye ne-phosphates.
Amanani e-urea akhuphuke ngo-77% kusukela ngoDisemba, lapho izindleko zomanyolo ngehektha ngalinye zingalingana kabili nenani lesitshalo. Ngaphandle kokusetshenziswa okwanele kwe-nitrogen ne-phosphorus kule nyanga, silinganisela ukuthi isivuno esifundeni saseMedithera singase sehle ngo-15-20% ngehektha ngalinye.
Isizini ka-2026 iphawula ukuphela kwenkathi. Ngenkathi i-“Hormuz Grain Initiative” ye-UN esanda kwethulwa inikeza ithemba lezombusazwe, imboni katamatisi ayikwazi ukulinda izivumelwano ngenkathi iwindi lokutshala livala. Ukuze sivikele umkhakha wethu, kumele sisekele izingcingo eziphuthumayo ezivela eRome naseParis zokuthi kumiswe ngokushesha izinqubomgomo zokuhweba kanye nohlelo lokuzimela komanyolo waseYurophu. Asisacubunguli nje utamatisi; siphatha inkinga yezepolitiki. Uma singatholi okokufaka kwezimboni manje, “igolide elibomvu” lika-2026 ngeke lichazwe ngekhwalithi, kodwa ngokuntuleka okukhulu.
Imithombo: IEA, Insee France, Wood Mackenzie, Maritime Gateway, Maersk, Flexible Packaging Europe, Investing.com, JP Morgan, ICIS, Reuters, Izithako Zokudla Okokuqala, Expana, Agrisole, Food Manufacturing
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-17-2026